Pack economics

Pack ROI Calculator — Is Opening Pokemon Packs Worth It?

The honest answer for most packs is no — but some sets are meaningfully better than others. This leaderboard shows the average raw expected value per pack, the PSA 10 gem rate, and the per-pack profit or loss for every current set. Updated every 6 hours.

Source data generated 2026-04-14 · 20 sets tracked

Set	Pack cost	EV raw	EV PSA 10	Gain / loss	Gem 10%
Pokemon Perfect OrderPOR · 45 cards	$8.75	$3.48	$31.63	-$5.27	—
Pokemon Shrouded FableSFA · 44 cards	$8.81	$3.38	$18.15	-$5.43	39.1%
Pokemon Phantasmal FlamesPFL · 46 cards	$9.45	$3.87	$29.23	-$5.58	51.3%
Pokemon Paradox RiftPAR · 105 cards	$7.56	$1.95	$18.74	-$5.61	36.6%
Pokemon Scarlet & VioletSVI · 71 cards	$8.02	$2.27	$29.84	-$5.75	28.6%
Pokemon Journey TogetherJTG · 47 cards	$7.85	$1.80	$21.43	-$6.05	32.2%
Pokemon Stellar CrownSCR · 50 cards	$8.41	$2.33	$17.75	-$6.08	40.5%
Pokemon Mega EvolutionMEG · 66 cards	$8.50	$2.34	$16.67	-$6.16	59.0%
Pokemon Twilight MasqueradeTWM · 79 cards	$8.67	$2.48	$17.06	-$6.19	46.1%
Pokemon White FlareWHT · 93 cards	$10.27	$4.07	$32.30	-$6.20	42.1%
Pokemon Temporal ForcesTEF · 78 cards	$9.09	$2.56	$19.60	-$6.53	43.0%
Pokemon Black BoltBLK · 92 cards	$11.15	$4.51	$34.86	-$6.64	45.9%
Pokemon Surging SparksSSP · 87 cards	$9.25	$1.92	$18.31	-$7.33	34.3%
Pokemon Ascended HeroesASC · 117 cards	$14.22	$6.87	$55.65	-$7.35	67.6%
Pokemon Destined RivalsDRI · 79 cards	$11.22	$2.90	$22.74	-$8.32	46.0%
Pokemon Prismatic EvolutionsPRE · 80 cards	$11.93	$3.39	$23.02	-$8.54	30.7%
Pokemon Obsidian FlamesOBF · 54 cards	$12.39	$2.54	$28.32	-$9.85	25.4%
Pokemon Paldea EvolvedPAL · 103 cards	$13.93	$3.42	$31.75	-$10.51	31.3%
Pokemon Paldean FatesPAF · 164 cards	$21.88	$5.17	$40.55	-$16.71	41.7%
Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151MEW · 54 cards	$27.17	$9.55	$59.30	-$17.62	30.1%

Gain/loss history per set

Pokemon Perfect Order

POR

-$5.27 per pack

18 days of history

Pokemon Shrouded Fable

SFA

-$5.43 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Phantasmal Flames

PFL

-$5.58 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Paradox Rift

PAR

-$5.61 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Scarlet & Violet

SVI

-$5.75 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Journey Together

JTG

-$6.05 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Stellar Crown

SCR

-$6.08 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Mega Evolution

MEG

-$6.16 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Twilight Masquerade

TWM

-$6.19 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon White Flare

WHT

-$6.20 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Temporal Forces

TEF

-$6.53 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Black Bolt

BLK

-$6.64 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Surging Sparks

SSP

-$7.33 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Ascended Heroes

ASC

-$7.35 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Destined Rivals

DRI

-$8.32 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Prismatic Evolutions

PRE

-$8.54 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Obsidian Flames

OBF

-$9.85 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Paldea Evolved

PAL

-$10.51 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Paldean Fates

PAF

-$16.71 per pack

30 days of history

Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151

MEW

-$17.62 per pack

30 days of history

What is pack EV?

Expected value (EV) is the average worth of the cards you'll pull from a pack if you opened thousands of them. It's computed by taking the market price of every card in the set, weighting each by how frequently it appears per pack, and summing the result. "EV raw" uses raw card prices; "EV PSA 10" uses PSA-graded prices multiplied by the set-wide gem rate to get a realistic ceiling.

Why most packs lose money

Sealed pricing bakes in the manufacturer's margin, retailer margin, distributor margin, and the house edge that keeps the grading-and-flipping economy alive. The chase cards that hit big are rare enough that the average pack is statistically a loss — that's how it has to be for the chase cards to be worth anything at all. A handful of freshly-released sets briefly show positive gain/loss when demand outpaces print-run assumptions, but that window typically closes within weeks.

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