Is your card worth grading?
Enter what your card sells for raw and graded, how likely each grade is, and what grading costs. The calculator shows the expected gain from grading, what you keep in each outcome, and the PSA 10 odds you need to break even.
Marginal — it is a coin flip
Grading roughly breaks even. Only submit if you would be happy keeping the slab, or if a closer look at condition moves the PSA 10 odds.
- Expected gain from grading
- $6.13
- Break-even PSA 10 chance
- 27%
| Outcome | Odds | You keep |
|---|---|---|
| Sell raw, no grading | — | $52.20 |
| Grades PSA 10 | 30% | $157.51 |
| Grades PSA 9 | 50% | $27.01 |
| PSA 8 or lower | 20% | −$12.14 |
| Expected if graded | — | $58.33 |
Expected value is an average over many submissions, not a promise for one card. Grading cost here is $59.99 per card; slabbing also takes weeks, and a card can come back lower than you expect.
Estimate my PSA 10 odds with an AI pre-grade →How the math works
Grading is an expected-value decision
You do not get the PSA 10 price — you get one of several outcomes, each with a probability. The fair comparison is what you would keep by selling raw today against the probability-weighted average of what you keep after each graded outcome, once grading, shipping and selling fees come out.
What you keep raw
The raw near-mint value minus the marketplace's selling fees. This is the number grading has to beat.
What you keep in each graded outcome
Graded value minus selling fees, minus the grading fee and shipping, for a 10, a 9 and an 8-or-lower. The 8-or-lower row is where most of the risk hides: it is often worth less than the raw card once costs come out.
The break-even PSA 10 chance
Holding your PSA 9 odds fixed, the PSA 10 probability at which grading exactly matches selling raw. If your honest estimate of the odds is below it, keep the card raw.
Worked example
A $60 raw card with a $250 PSA 10
Using the example numbers in the calculator — $60 raw, $250 PSA 10, $100 PSA 9, $55 for an 8 or lower, a $39.99 fee (PSA Value tier as of Oct 30, 2026), $20 shipping and insurance, and 13% selling fees — selling raw nets $52.20. With a 30% chance of a 10 and 50% of a 9, the expected graded result is $58.33: about $6.13 better than selling raw. The break-even PSA 10 chance is about 26%. Raise the PSA 10 odds to 50% (with 40% for a 9) and the expected gain becomes $36.14, which is why knowing the condition before you submit matters more than anything else on this page.
Improve the most important input
Your PSA 10 odds decide the answer
Prices are easy to look up. The odds are where people fool themselves. Centering has published thresholds you can measure; corners, edges and surface are judged under magnification, and pack-fresh cards fail them all the time.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
How do I know if my card is worth grading?
Compare what you keep by selling raw with the average of what you keep in each graded outcome, after the grading fee, shipping and selling fees. If the expected graded result does not clearly beat selling raw, grading is a bet rather than an investment. The calculator on this page does that arithmetic for you.
What is a good rule of thumb for grading a card?
Check the PSA 9 price, not just the PSA 10 price. If a 9 does not cover the raw value plus your grading cost, you need a 10 to come out ahead, and most cards that look clean in hand still land on a 9. Cards that only make money as a 10 need strong evidence — measured centering and no visible edge or surface flaws — before you submit.
How do I estimate my chance of getting a PSA 10?
Start with centering, the one sub-grade you can measure: PSA 10 allows 55/45 to 60/40 on the front and 75/25 on the back. Then check corners, edges and surface under good light. An AI pre-grade gives you measured centering and flags the defects that most often block a 10, which is a far better input than a guess.
What costs should I include besides the grading fee?
Shipping to the grader and back, insurance, any membership the service tier requires, and the marketplace's selling fees when you sell the slab (and when you sell raw, for a fair comparison). Turnaround time is a cost too: prices can move while the card is away.
Is it ever worth grading a card that loses money on paper?
Yes, if the goal is not resale. Grading authenticates a card, protects it in a sealed holder, and can make it easier to sell or insure. For a personal collection piece, the fee buys protection rather than profit — just make that choice knowingly.
Does this calculator work for sports cards, Magic and One Piece?
Yes. The math is the same for any card and any grading company: enter the raw value, the graded values for the outcomes you expect, your odds and your costs. Use the grader's own price list for the fee, since tiers and prices change often.
Put a real number on your PSA 10 odds
Upload a photo for measured centering and corner, edge and surface sub-grades — the input this calculator is most sensitive to. Your first grade is free, no account needed.
Pre-grade a card